Economic outlook on the manufacturing industry in Treviso - Third quarter of 2011

Edited by the Local Research and Economic Development office - Treviso Chamber of Commerce

Mid-year expectations by local entrepreneurs in Treviso were right: the periodic monitoring on manufacturing industry in the third quarter of 2011 highlighted a globally worsening scenario,  both concerning final data and compared with expectations.

Negative changes over the previous period might have been also influenced by the summer break. Production decreased by 3.8%, domestic orders decreased by 4.7% and foreign demand dropped by 2.4%. Anyway, running out forces that previously contributed to supporting economic trends were more evident in year-on-year almost nonexisting changes. Foreign turnover, once more, followed different paths closing the quarter with a 3.3% year-on-year change:  this is the only variable that leads to optimism for the next quarter, as the other indicators don't allow for positive forecasts.

This is what emerged from the latest quarterly analysis on the manufacturing industry in Treviso, based on data gathered on a sample of 562 enterprises counting a total of 23,773 employees over the third quarter of 2011. 

The analysis by sector showed that the machinery and metalwork products are the leading sectors. The food industry and the most internationalised segment of the textiles and clothing sector marked good results as well,  while the wood and furniture industry performed poorly on all indicators, both in the short and long term.

Detailed analysis

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

Production decreased by 3.8% compared to the previous quarter and remained quite stable (+0.2%) compared to the third quarter of 2010. Recovery in production seems to experience a slowdown, after positive performances starting in the first quarter of 2010.
The whole Veneto region registered a quarter-to-quarter 5.2% decrease, more substantial than in Treviso, but it slightly recovered on an annual basis (+2.1%).

Trend by sector showed positive results, with the machinery, metalwork products and food sectors performing above the average (quarter-to-quarter +8.5%, +2.6% and +4.1% respectively).  The wood and furniture and textiles and clothing sectors marked negative results both on a quarterly and annual basis.

Signs of slowdown were evident in the main EU economies, even affecting Germany that had shown the best recovery trend until then.  Such slowdown contributed to strengthening differences between advanced and emerging economies. In August 2011, the industrial production index concerning all advanced economies was fluctuating between 90 and 95 (except Japan, that remained 10 points below) against higher levels in emerging economies (113.4), especially thanks to Asian countries (122.2). (continue)

English translation by trevisosystem.com m.b.