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The Excelsior survey of the Italian territory is provided by the National
Statistical Programme and is carried out by Unioncamere in cooperation with
the Employment Ministry and the European Union. This is the seventh edition,
and surveys more than 100,000 businesses in all economic sectors and of all
sizes, who are asked to disclose analytically their employment requirements
for this year.
The survey concerns the demand for subordinate employment - forms of ongoing
collaboration are excluded - and is an important statistical source to study
the requirements for positions that enterprises foresee to fill in the short
term.
As in previous surveys the scope of observation covers the diverse world of
private businesses registered with the Company Registry of Chambers of Commerce
which had at least one employee on 31.12.2001, with the exclusion of operative
units of the Public Administration, public agencies in the health sector, public
school and university units and associations. However, it includes businesses
in the farming sector.
Professional activities which are obliged to file with professional registers,
although they are not bound to file with the Company Registry, have also been
considered for the purposes of the survey.
The units considered are a company and its local and provincial unit. By provincial
unit we mean all the local units of the same company operating in a province
and relevant employees corresponding to the sum of employees working in the
same province.
Interviews were carried out through a questionnaire which allowed to survey
the workforce as of 31.12.2002, movements in and out actually occurred in the
year 2003 and movement forecasts for the year 2004.
In the analysis of employment movement forecasts for 2004 Treviso ranks 5th
by number of employees to be recruited with 11,076 units (after Verona with
12,662, Vicenza with 12,443, Padua with 11,478 and Venice with11,226), but
it is the second Veneto province by balance between recruitments and dismissals,
equalling 2,575 units, after the province of Verona (2,623 units).
It is significant to underline that after dividing companies by size the Treviso
province ranks first by positive balance for businesses with less than 50 employees,
whereas it records a negative employment balance equalling –188 units
for businesses with more than 50 employees.
Limiting the analysis of employment forecasts for 2004 to the Treviso province
alone, at the end of 2003 the workforce was 214,852 units (table
1),
2.4% up on the end of 2002 (209,859 units).
The positive balance of 2,575 units is lower by an impressive2,942 units with
respect to the previous year, probably due to the prolonged economical stagnation
which has led entrepreneurs to being more cautious than the previous year,
although they continue to invest in human resources.
However, the ratio between new recruits and population residing in the Treviso
province as of 31.12.2003 shows that 134 new employees are forecast to be recruited
every 10,000 inhabitants compared with116 at national level.
An analysis of individual sectors of activity shows that the most remarkable
employment balances are recorded in transports, credit and services to businesses
with +657 units, in commerce with +593 units, in construction with+421 units
and in the sector of public houses and tourist services with+259 units; in
particular this latter sector features the highest variation rate (ratio between
employment balance and total employees as of 2003) at +3.9%.
The forecast is negative, however, for the textile-clothing sector with –404
units, for producers of electric and electronic equipment with –133 units
and for the leather and footwear sector with –62 units.
Comparing local units which foresee to recruit personnel to the total of units
covered by the survey by sectors of activity shows that more than 40% of local
units in the rubber and plastics, metal and machinery industry have declared
the intention to recruit.
The analysis of recruitment forecasts by large professional groups (table 2),
shows that professions involved by the largest number of recruitments are as
follows:
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Specialized workers at 28.2% of the total;
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Plant and machinery operators at 17.6% of the total (essentially due to a high demand for truck and heavy vehicle drivers);
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Technical and high-specialisation professions, management posts at 16.3 % of the total;
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Jobs dealing with sales and services at 15.7% of the total.
A comparison with professions in 2003 highlights on one hand a decrease by
7 percentage points of skilled workers’ recruitment over the total recruitment
forecast and approximately 3 points for jobs in sales and services, on the
other hand an increase by approximately two percentage points for plant operators
and technical, highly-skilled and managerial jobs.
Also highlighted is the growth of non-skilled personnel over the total recruitments,
with a ratio of 12.1% compared with 8.1% in 2003.
The cautious attitude of businesses with respect to new recruitments is reflected
both on the type of fixed-term contracts, which goes from 18.9% of recruitment
forecasts for the year 2003 to 30.6% for the year 2004 (also due to the absorption
of a large share of previous employment training contracts), and on replacement
recruitment, which has grown by nearly 6 percentage points with respect to
the 2003 forecasts.
The analysis
of recruitments divided by school qualifications shows a noticeable increase
in the number of university and secondary school graduates, mirrored by a decrease
in the demand for personnel having a compulsory education certificate only.
In 2004 5.7% of new recruits (635 units) must have a university degree, compared
with 4.2% the previous year (539); on the other hand 32.9% secondary school
graduates are recruited (3,646) compared with 27.8% (3,588) in 2003, while
the demand for personnel with a lower secondary school certificate goes from
45.0% in 2003 to 40.2%.
Recruitments forecasts by companies do not just aim at replacing professional
figures leaving the labour market due to resignation, retirement and dismissals,
but also address new company needs such as an expansion or diversification
of activities and the need to rely on new or different skills. In some cases,
we are facing an actual renovation process, in as that a new, previously non
existing professional figure joins the company. The renewal rate (given by
the ratio between the number of personnel joining a company in replacement
and personnel hired not to replace any leavers) is a preliminary attempt to
measure the rate of the process of expansion in professional requirements;
however, it is necessary to underline that in some sectors a high renovation
rate could be hiding an extreme need for personnel due to a structural sector
expansion (as is the case in construction).
It should also be highlighted that replacing a leaver might be an opportunity
for businesses to have better skills also in jobs considered as “traditional”,
aiming at a higher level of training (integrated, post-entry, in-service).
A look at table No.4 shows
that the renewal rate goes from 2.0 to 1.5 in the whole provincial recruitment
forecast for 2004, confirming the cautious attitude of businesses in balancing
employment flows of recruits and leavers.
More precisely, the decrease in the
renewal rate involves more markedly accounting jobs (accountants, personnel
in charge of handling numerical data, clerical workers and office operators)
and workers in the textile and clothing sector.
The renewal rate for technical jobs (physical sciences and engineering technicians,
metal mould makers and welders), jobs connected to personal services and cashiers
and front desk clerks is positive. Also to be noted is an increase in the renewal
rate for paramedical technical personnel, which goes up to 3.1 despite the
small number of recruitments.
For this year the demand for extra-communitarians is decreasing (table
5): if in 2003 the recruitment forecast was 35.3%, in 2004 it goes down
to 31.3% - the highest number of extra-communitarians, more than 50% of recruits
and with the highest number of recruits in absolute value, is required to fill
in vacancies such as: cleaners and laundering services workers (396 extra-communitarians
equalling 55.2% of recruits), construction workers (314 extra-communitarians
equalling 65.1% of recruits), metal mould makers and welders (252 extra-communitarians
equalling 55.5% of recruits).
Meri Dalla Libera
Sabina Bolzan
Francesca Piscopo
Excerpt from "The Economy of the Treviso area", August 2004
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