Data analysis on first 2006 quarter

Analysing the foreign inter-exchange picture, according to what emerged during the last istat survey upgrading, referred to the first quarter of 2006, Veneto export increased of + 5.1%, if compared to the last year first quarter, and against a National result equal to +11.5%. However, it seems appropriate to keep always in mind the shortness of the considered period (first 2006 quarter) which does not allow identifying the real meaningful trend per each sector because of both: some possible statistical rebounds and some physiologic seasonality.

Therefore, with this warning, inter-exchanges data concerning Treviso and the most meaningful data concerning some Veneto provinces will be given here below.
Treviso occupies, with Venice, the last position within our Region in regards to the export activities even if it registers still a positive result such as +1.2%. However, it places itself at the second position, after Vicenza, for what concerns export volumes (about €2,175 millions) and the commercial balance (about €938 millions).

Among Veneto provinces, Vicenza points out a meaningful percentage variation - between the two first quarters of 2006 and 2005 - of +8.5%, with a volume of exports of about €2,707 millions.

For what concerns the import volume activities, Veneto achieves the +7.9% against the +17.1% National rate.
In fact, Treviso, having an import activity which amounts to circa €1,237 millions, shows a percentage variation of the +6.5% in relation to the first 2005 quarterly period (which is a result very similar to the Vicenza one). The increased import for Rovigo and Belluno has been very strong (respectively +53.6% and 28.2%) followed by Verona which registers and increase of +10.0% with the highest import volume among the Veneto provinces which resulted to be circa €2,698 millions.

Considering Treviso province Priority Sectors and their export situation during the fist 2006 quarter and compare it with the first 2005 one, the picture appears as follows: the first three sectors by volumes exported are: industrial machinery, shoes, clothing and furs. Together they represent the 43% of the abroad trade flows.

• Industrial machineries, however, registered a decreasing of 5.4% (about €418 millions less, within the first quarter of 2006 against the €442 of the same period in 2005); 6.1% is, on the opposite the growth registered at the Regional level.
• Shoes shows an increase of +16.3% (about €208 millions) in comparison to the 2.0% of the rest of Veneto;
• Clothing and furs score an increase of the 2.4% (about €249 millions); against a Regional decrease of 0.2%.

Export Positive trend for the sectors of:

• Metals +6.1%, about €115 millions, +12.3% at the Regional growth:
• Electrical and precision devices +2.3%, circa €123 millions against the Regional growth of + 10.7%;
• Furniture, which is the export fourth important sector, registers an increase of + 0.7% (about €239 millions) against the Regional data decreasing (- 1.4%); worse the situation in respect to the wood-primary-industry which shows a negative percentage variation of 2.9% against the Veneto + 3.7%.

Export negative trends for the sectors of:

• Food -12.5%, about €65 millions, against the smaller Regional – 1.3%;
• Automotive and others transport means – 9.7%, about €56 millions, against the Regional data of – 4.9%;
• Rubber and plastics – 4.2%, about €47 millions, against the Regional data of + 0.1%;
• Non metal minerals – 3.5%, about €40 millions, against the Veneto + 3.2%;
• Textiles -2.7%, about € 174 millions, against the Regional data of – 8.0%:
• Household appliances – 1.5%, about €171 millions, against the Regional data of + 3.2%.

On the import side, the first items closely analysed are clothing, shoes and textiles, which represent all together about the 39% of the Provincial import and more precisely, they are:

• Clothing items which score an increasing of the 3.3%, about €199 million, in respect to Veneto + 11.3%;
• Shoes which shows an increase of the 22.3%, about €189 millions, compared with the Regional data of + 18.3%;
• Textiles, which underwent to meaningful growth, represents a + 13.5%, about €119 millions, against the Veneto +3.1%.

Meaningful increases on import activities have to be pointed out even on sectors such as:

• Paper, press and publishing + 34.3%, about €34 millions, against the Veneto +3.8%;
• Rubber and plastics + 16.2%, about €43 millions, against Veneto +10.7%;
• Chemicals +15.7%, about €67 millions, against the Veneto – 14.8%;
• Industrial machineries +5.3%, about €112 millions, which results to be a variation lined up with the Veneto one;
• Non metal minerals + 4.7%, about € 29 millions, while for Veneto is + 6.4%;
• Electrical and precision devices +0.6 %, about €64 millions, in comparison with Veneto, which is +18.7%.
  

Import mainly decreases in the following sectors:

• Automotive and other transport means -28.0%, about 26 millions, in respect to Veneto +3.4%
• Agriculture goods (-17.9%), while Veneto registers a – 8.0%;
• Oil and by-product goods -15.3%, for a very small volume which is about €166,000, against a + 3.4% for Veneto;
• Alloy – 10.0%, about €118 millions, +3.2 at the Regional level;
• Food, drinks and tobacco – 8.2%, about €36 millions, against the + 5.7% Regional data.

By Anna Morandin and Francesca Piscopo
"L'Economia della Marca Trevigiana", n.4 -2006