Recovery signs intercepted in the end of 2005 find full confirmation in the present survey: in the 1st 2006 quarter, Treviso manufacturing industry sees its production and turnover growing respectively of 8.0% and of 11.0% on an annual basis.

These are important data, on which a “bouncing effect” is impressed also in their intensity in relation to negative or stationary data during the first months of 2005.
However, it is not just an statistic illusion: quarterly variations are the proof, and they are all positives. In relation to the fourth 2005 quarterly report, which already presented positive aspect since the production grew of +1.3% and the turnover of +9.7%.

On the other hand, just adding the fact that this time the economic recovery concerns all the productive system, not just the medium-sized industries, as it has was happening three months ago. If the medium enterprises (50-249 employees) see the production growing of +10.3% on a trend basis, also the small (10-49 employees) performed a +7.2%.

As was already underlined, this recovery is indeed dragged along by the market demand: new order bookings from the domestic market are growing of 3.5% on a annual quarterly basis and of +12.8% on a trend basis. In this case it is indeed perceivable the discontinuity in respect to the drop of the domestic market demand during the 1st and the 2nd quarterly of 2005.

Order bookings from abroad are growing of +8.8% on the quarterly basis and on the annual basis the growing trend is of +22.3%. This strong variation is especially driven by machineries sector (28.7%); however also the textile and clothing sectors are hooking the international market demand (9.2%) and the furniture & wood sector (+7.7%) as well. Therefore, Treviso entrepreneurs, when, during last quarterly forecasts, were betting for an increasing of the foreigner market demands, had had just the right insight.

This important insertion of Treviso within the international market circuits find confirmation in the turnover related to the foreign markets, which is growing fast: +14.4% on a trend basis (where the best performance is given by the textile-clothing sector +17.3%).

Therefore, it is pointed out a productive capacity slightly rising: the degree of usage of plants goes from 74.3% to almost 76.0%, accompanied by a stokes normalisation. On the other hand, it is perceivable now a hard core steady enough especially if it is considered that in this period enterprises (about ¼ of the sample) are adopting the “zero stokes” strategy.

Employment capacity during the quarterly period (+0.3%) it is just syeady, while the trend variation is still paying the downturn registered in 2005 (-2.4%).

FORECASTS

Between December 2005 and March 2006, are growing optimistic opinions for what concern the production, passing from 30% to 43% of the enterprises interviewed; are decreasing, on the opposite negative opinions (from 23% to 14%).

For what concern the domestic market, it is possible to meet the same range of opinions. Positive opinions prevail: the 46% of interviewed foreseen for March 2006 a growth of the domestic market demand while only the 16% think to a decline.

On the foreign market demand side are confirmed optimistic opinions (43% in March 2006, 44% in December 2005).

For what concerns the turnover the majority of interviewed (52%) bet on its growth; particularly the range of whom foresees dynamics is above +5% it goes from a 7% to 17%.

Positive confirmation also on prices over production, which should not undergo to a rising, given that the 65% of interviewed express stationary opinions (55% in December 2005).

Also the employment rate point to a stability (78% of opinions) leaving aside contigent situations and specific realities.

Federico Callegari
"L'Economia della Marca Trevigiana", n.4 -2006