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2005 Veneto Economic Trends and forecasts for 2006

The annual Report realised by Veneto Unioncamere has been presented.

Here below is published the contribution by Veneto Unioncamere President, Mr Federico Tessari, held during the presentation of the Annual Economic Report carried out by Veneto Unioncamere, in Venice the 30th of June 2006.

It seems appropriate to underline, especially during the historical celebration for the achievement of the 40th Veneto Unioncamere’s Economic Report, how since the beginning, it had represented a very useful tool, monitoring the Regional economy

The picture taken by the 2006 Report, which today I will present for the first time as Veneto Unioncamere President, is of a Region that does not surrender to the declining ideologies and on the opposite is transforming itself evolving towards a new model.

Final balance data, emerging from statistics, confirmed that the 2005 has been an economic uncertain year in Veneto, however, first months of 2006 point to a recovery of our economic system, which was already in sight at the end of 2005, and last available data allow us to say that our Region is growing again.

After a 2003 modest result (+0.4%) and the recovery occurred along the 2004 (+1.4%), Veneto economy during 2005 a slowed down again, likewise the national data.
Veneto GDP remained steady in respect to 2004. The meaningful growth of the Services sector, in detail of the Tourism section, could not completely balance the short-term dynamic less favourable of industrial sectors (both manufacturing and constructions ones) and the negative one of the Agriculture sector.

During 2005 the Services sector provided the most important contribution to the Regional economic growth. The surplus value grew of 1.2% in respect to 2004, lining itself up to €57.3 billions and bringing at the 63% the incidence on the Regional product. Particularly, for what concerns the Tourism sector, the 2005 has been positive: arrivals grew of 406 thousands units (+3.4%), enhancing the threshold over 12.5 millions tourists, while presences grew of almost 2.2 millions (+4%), bringing to 56.7 millions the overall numbers of visitors in our Region. The Services sector, especially the Financial section contributed to the Regional growth. During 2005 our Region Financial and Credit system has been characterised by a meaningful growth in jobs (+8.9%), higher than the national level (+7.6%), despite the difficult year portrayed by a economic situation.

The performance of the industrial sector in the overall has been less brilliant. For the manufacturing industry, 2005 has been a year of low growth. According to VenetoCongiuntura results, after the fist half a year difficulties (-1.6% within the first 2005 quarter, -0.2% during the second) and recovery signs during the summer months (+1.3%), during the fourth quarter of 2005 the industrial production registered a rise of the 2.7% in respect to the same period of 2004. Such a result allowed to Veneto industry to close a positive 2005 despite everything, registering an average annual growth of +0.6%.

The constructions sector, after a long period of growth, showed during 2005 some difficulties. During last year the production volume of the construction sector undergone to a downturn of 1.7% if compared to 2004, inverting the expansion cycle of last four years.
The most interesting data concerns the production structure: during 2005, the number of registered enterprises rose of over 4,000 units if compare with the previous year, marking a new expansion of the entrepreneurial basis. It is a positive aspect, which is demonstrating how in Veneto the entrepreneurial spirit did not suffer the low growth phases.

Our Region, in the export trades, even if it has made up some point percentage, all the same, registered a negative result (-1.5%). On the opposite, import trades confirmed the trend of previous years growth (+2.1%), to which exchange trades with China contributed substantially. In fact, China is today the second Country for Regional imports.
Good are the condition on the side of the employment, which, during 2005 grew of 1% that in absolute terms it means to say that there are 20,000 units more in respect with 2004, with meaningful increasing of Services and Construction sectors. The unemployment data remains unvaried at the 4.2%.

HOW WILL BE THE 2006 IN VENETO?
First hints provide recovery signals, which confirm improvement showed during the last months 2005. Most recent forecasts provided by Unioncamre and by Prometeia pointed to a GDP growth of 1.4%.

Even if this is a prudent sight, such forecast represents the starting up of a new economic growth in Veneto, which could be back to drag the Northeast and the whole national economy. In 2006, in fact, the perceived future scenario sees Veneto at the head of the main Italian Regions for development rate, together with Emilia-Romagna (+1.5%) and Tuscany (+1.4%) ahead of Lombardy (+1.2%) and Piedmont (+1.1%).

Signals of economic recovery are arriving mainly from the manufacturing industry. According VenetoCongiuntura survey of the Unioncamere Study Centre, carried out for the first time with Confartigianato on a sample of almost 2,000 enterprise (with at least two employees), the first 2006 quarterly confirmed recovery signals highlighted within the last months of 2005. Industrial production registered a + 3.9% on an annual basis and a +0.7% in respect to the previous quarter of the year but even the turnover and order bookings pointed to meaningful results.

Also commercial trade abroad underlined the a brilliant beginning of the year, thanks to the increase of 5.1% in exports on the annual basis. It is a very encouraging result for Veneto economy which, as it emerges from a research edited by our Study Centre pursued within the frame of INFO25 European Project, today Veneto is one of the Regions economically more advanced at the UE level, thanks to the quick development of commercial relationships with foreign markets and particularly because of the Only European Market.

Recent evolution of short-term indexes is rewarding the optimism expressed in the end of 2005 and today allows assessing that 2006 will be the year of the big change. Certainly not a painless change, since the Regional economy is going through a long metamorphosis period and it seems always more clear the need of policies able to foster the repositioning of the economic and entrepreneurial system.
The main objective remains to remove obstacles to the enterprises development, fostering their aggregation, investing in human resources and supporting innovation process. In other words, there is the need to seek external and internal favourable condition to enterprises and allow the small enterprises form the on hand and to the medium-large on the other to retake, following different strategies, to drag Veneto economy.
To create these conditions we need to investigate enterprises strengths and weaknesses in order to understand their necessities, difficulties and find effective solutions on the light of the current economic dynamics.

  • This means that there is the need of ad hoc policies that Veneto Unioncamere and the Veneto Chambers of Commerce are pursuing since few years and particularly:
  • Defining and programming policies and initiatives to foster enterprises in collaboration with all levels of public “governance”, beginning with the Regional one and arriving to the European Union thanks to our Representative desk in Brussels and to Eurosportello which we host within the Union.
  • Keeping constantly in mind benefits and advantages coming to our Region and to our enterprises from the Communitarian integration process and from the creation of a Large Only European Market which today sees 25 European States taking it part and it guarantee us also a constant positive commercial balance;
  • Foster enterprises aggregation also through collaboration with the Region within the Regional Bill on the Industrial Clusters;
  • Promoting research and development within Veneto enterprises through Chamber, Regional and Communitarian funds part of the EU VII Frame Programme, but also through creation of tools to contribute to the Risk Capital and the collaboration with the Region to define the next Regional Bill on the research;
  • Assisting our enterprises within internationalisation initiatives, keeping as referring point national and communitarian programmes but also elicit a quick application of the Law 33/2004 and of the relative creation of the Regional Agency for Vento Promotion and Internationalisation;
  • Supporting our enterprises in the competition with Extra Communitarian Countries, particularly with those that, not abiding the same law that the European enterprises have to respect, are keeping an underhand competition. In order to contrast this, we have to react promoting quality, correctness of relationships with consumers, transparency and information on the origin of our products and goods. In other words, we need to verify the feasibility for the establishment of a collective umbrella brand certifying origin and quality, guaranteed by the Region and the Chamber system and to be offered to our enterprises of all producing sectors.

Veneto Unioncamere, through the annual Report, wanted to offer its analysis contribution, also this year, choosing to focus its attention on two main issues: the first concerned the interpretation of the economic system performance through enterprises balance sheets, public and social budgets, while the second related on the training of human resources.

In fact, the second part of the 2006 Report is completely focused on the first issue, hosting very interesting contributions, close examining balances and budgets. The available time does not allow me to give a detailed analysis of proposed contents, however, I think appropriated to point the attention to a particular chapter on the enterprises balance sheets. Accountancy information, in fact, represents an indispensable tool to analyse and comprehend Regional and Provincial economic transformations, filling up diverse gaps of the officials stats. Aggregating ad hoc enterprises balance sheets data, become possible to analyse the economic and financial structure of a producing system in various territorial levels, sectors and dimensional and with a high precision degree.
Such an approach has been experimented at the Regional level through data made available by Unioncamere-Mediobanca and at the Provincial level through sophisticated elaboration pursued on the databank Best-Infocamere.

Results concerning Veneto are rather comforting. In the first place, the financial situation of medium enterprises of our Region presents less cash availability but a higher real estates properties covering, therefore appears to be solid under the patrimony profile. In second place, the economic situation is better than in the rest of the Country, too, above all in the ROE, which is the decisive factor in choosing the most convenient investments.

Similar conclusion are emerging also from analysis pursued at the Provincial level, as it has been for Treviso, which showed current potentiality and possible future development in a permanent observatory on balance sheets enterprises, as “compass” to deep understanding our economic system metamorphosis.
For the second issue, the human resources training, we invited Prof. Dino Rizzi, Dean of the Faculty of Economy of the University Ca’ Foscari of Venice. The presence of human capital – which represent a meaningful side of “tangible goods” for enterprises – highly skilled, represent a an important pre-assumption to develop innovation and guarantee a higher competitiveness for our economic system.

Veneto is a Region, which has always showed liveliness, creativity and a huge initiative. With 2006, the moment to go back growing look like to be arrived.

Unioncamere Regional prize for Veneto economic development.

Federico Tessari
Tratto da "L'Economia della Marca Trevigiana", n.4 - 2006


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